historian and researcher in security and strategic affairs
Efforts to mobilize supporting the government of Adnan Al-Zurfi were in despair after the Sunni Forces Alliance and the Kurdish Forces Alliance were unable to do anything to help his ally, so on April 9, Adnan Al-Zurfi apologized for his mandate and was courageous in accepting the de facto standards in Iraq.
The failure of approving Mr. Allawi made the Saairun alliance in a neutral state, and became the current of Al-hekma in the person of Ammar Al- hakim as coordinator of the consultation to get out from the crisis of the candidate of the Shiite political house for the post of prime minister, as well as the cessation of Saairun from interacting as political forces cooperating with the Badr organization, which provided an opportunity for the State of Law coalition to change the balance within the Albina coalition.
On the other hand, The State of Law coalition was able to create a strategic alliance with the Kurds and Sunnis, to unify the positions of Barzani, Maliki, and Halbousi, those positions played a role in removing Mr. Al-Zurfi and agreeing on Mr. Al-Kadhimi as an alternative, Also, creating an atmosphere that created a consensus to accept Kadhimi.
In a speech broadcast on Al-Iraqiya tv, al-Kadhimi expressed great interest in putting an end to the illegal arms, and showed his abhorrence of foreign political interference in Iraqi politics, and defined his vision in dealing with these foreign interventions in his government program, and wants economic cooperation with everyone, rather than political conflict.
The Shiite militias (Al-wailayia) and their political parties only planned to remove Al-Zurfi, they wanted to show the impossibility of ignoring their parties and leaders in the issue of the selection of the prime minister, this is what confirmed by the leader in Al-Sadiqoun Bloc Adnan Fihan, as well as that MP Hassan Salem. so that, perhaps Al-Kadhimi succeeded in mission impossible of containing the Shiite militias (Al-wailayia). Moreover, Sheikh Khazali’s tweets were focusing on irregularities committed by the presidency and its failure to differentiate between mandate and nomination powers. These tweets, though repeated, confirm that they are betting on Kadhimi’s ability to calm down between the militias (Al-wailayia) and the presidency.
So far, Al-Kadhimi is still under pressure from two problems, firstly, he has to endure a hard-line U.S. policy against Iran’s military and economic allies. secondly, to deal cautiously with the file of Shiite militias (Al-wailayia) that declared war on the U.S. presence, which is part of Iran’s approach in circumventing of U.S. economic sanctions!
According to my review of the practical biography of Mr. Kadhimi, he belongs to the School of Peace making through the policy we can call it “open doors”, through this policy he wish to enable stability and classification of militias outside the law and isolate them from the use of the capabilities and powers of the Popular Mobilization PMF (Al-Hashed Al-shaabi) , as well as enable the security institutions to hold weapons outside the rule of law.
However, the biggest challenge facing Mr. Kadimi’s government is the economic deterioration, the Coronavirus pandemic and the possibility of a large-scale return to popular protests, and Mr. Al-Kadhimi should choose a sincere moment to open the people up to the real government’s possibilities and how to address these challenges in accordance with a national law vision.
There is also abandoned humanitarian file, it is the file of camps for displaced persons as well as displaced persons outside the camps, Sunni Arabs, Yazidis, Shiite Turkmens, Kakiya and Christians, a large segment of Iraqis who have suffered for years of poverty and neglect. In addition, the file of the political exiles abducted by militias and the file of trials outside the judiciary, which are very serious. There is also the file of punishing the officers and armed bodies that caused the killing of peaceful demonstrators and injuring and disabling thousands of them and the arrest, kidnapping and assassination of many of them, all of these should be done in the first 100 days of the government of Al-Kadhimi in parallel with the economic and health file, and review the decisions and aid of the caretaker government.
The most important issue is the early elections and a fair electoral law, which remains suspended by the ability of the world to win over the Coronavirus pandemic, because social divergence prevents the conduct of campaigns and also the holding of voting, but it is possible to prepare logistical, legal and training requirements for early elections at a date still unknown.
Finally, the dominant political forces in Iraq, they want to keep the next government , whether the government of the new prime minister Mr. Al-Kadhimi or others, until the end of the constitutional period of the government in 2022, and to postpone the issue of early elections for as long as possible. In my opinion, with the chaos of the Shiite militias and the Coronavirus pandemic thay may achieve this.